Update 6/12: Today's election update adds 9,208 ballots and London Breed's lead over Mark Leno grows by 260 votes to 1,861 votes. Today's count included 1,800 vote-by-mail ballots and 7,311 of the 14,000 provisional ballots. We assumed that Leno's hopes of re-taking the lead depended on the provisional ballot strongly favoring him and Jane Kim. With that not happening today when over half of those votes were counted, it looks almost certain that Breed will be our next Mayor.
We'll say more about this election when the dust settles, but here are a few initial thoughts. Having campaigned for progressive causes for over a decade, we're used to being massively outspent, and we're used to losing. But losing by a couple thousand votes is hard. We know we're not the only ones thinking about what we could've done to hustle a few more votes. It sucks. But even if these results hold, this might be our most successful election yet. We won virtually everything else on the local ballot! That never happens for our slate! Check out the chart below that shows how Prop C eked out a victory--despite big money opposing it and the cynical ploy of Prop D--to fund a groundbreaking new childcare and early childhood education program! When the League was first founded, our goal was to build a progressive majority in our lifetimes. We remain committed to that goal, and we remain committed to keep San Francisco a diverse, just, and healthy city. If this election broke your heart, we suggest taking time for some self-care...And then getting ready to do it all over again for the November election.
Update 6/11: Today's election update adds 9,000 votes to the count and London Breed gains just another 21 votes over Mark Leno from 1,580 votes to 1,601 votes. The Department of Elections says there are about 17,000 votes left to count. That includes 14,000 provisional ballots. Provisional ballots take way longer to count than vote by mail ballots, so we anticipate more waiting and watching.
Update 6/10: Today's election update adds 16,400 votes to the count and London Breed strengthens her lead over Mark Leno from 498 votes to 1,580 votes (103,388 to 101,808). The Department of Elections says there are about 25,000 votes left to count. That includes 14,000 provisional ballots, which have historically leaned more progressive.
Update 6/9 #2: Here's a map from Jim Stearns that shows where today's votes came from.
You can compare that to this map of where Kim and Leno did well to guess what it means. It looks like it was a pretty even mix of areas favorable to Breed and Kim/Leno. Over on Mission Local's excellent ongoing coverage, political scientist Jason McDaniel says Breed needs a 1,000 vote lead to hold of Leno's expected edge in the provisional ballot. Stay tuned....
Update 6/9 #1: What a rollercoaster! Today's election update adds 23,213 votes to the count and London Breed has retaken the lead from Mark Leno by 498 votes. 2,700 of the votes were mailed in, the rest were dropped off at polling places on Election Day. The Department of Elections says there are about 42,000 votes left to count. That includes 14,000 provisional ballots, which have historically leaned more progressive. They will probably finish the remaining vote-by-mail ballots by Monday, but counting all of the provisional ballots could take another week! Here's a chart of how the vote count has gone.
Update 6/8 #3: Here's a map from Alex Lantsberg, another friendly data geek, showing where today's votes came from:
You can compare that to this map of where Kim and Leno did well to guess what it means. It looks like it was a pretty even mix of areas favorable to Breed and Kim/Leno. For more thoughts on what it all means, see Mission Local's excellent ongoing coverage.
Update 6/8 #2: Seriously?!? They counted 19,475 votes today and Leno's lead narrowed from 255 votes to 144 votes! The Department of Elections says these votes included 6,000 that were mailed in, and 13,000 vote-by-mail ballots that were dropped off at polling places. There are still 64,900 ballots left to count: 51,000 vote-by-mail ballots, and 14,000 provisional ballots. Here's a chart showing Leno's lead over Breed in blue and the total number of votes cast in red. It looks like the final total of votes will be close to that top line in the graph of 250,000 votes, which would be over 50% turnout.
Update 6/8 #1: Jim Stearns has more maps! This first map shows the votes that were counted on 6/7 that shifted the results towards London Breed. Jim says, "This is derived by comparing the precinct statement of vote released yesterday with the prior day's statement. the areas colored in red and orange represent 50% of the ballots cast; the yellow is an additional 30%. You can see clearly that the central city where both Leno and Kim did best is almost completely missing."
This second map shows, "where 49,100 absentee ballots that arrived on or after election day are from. Some of these may have been counted already, and there may be additional -- this is what the DOE gave us yesterday. Red precincts, with more than 100 ballots each, represent about 50% of remaining ballots; the orange and yellow precincts are about 25% each."
And this map shows the precincts where Leno and Kim's combined first place votes were greater than 50%, as of the count on June 6th. Comparing this to the map above of votes yet to be counted, we see a lot of votes from Leno-Kim strongholds like the Castro, Mission, Noe, Bernal, and Potrero, but also a lot of votes where Breed did well in places like Mission Bay, West of Twin Peaks, and parts of the Bayview and central Sunset.
Update 6/7: Yowzers! They counted 8,065 votes and Leno's lead shrunk from 1,121 to 255 votes! Of the votes counted today, 3,000 were ballots that were received in the mail on Election Day and 5,000 were dropped off at polling places.
There are still 84,000 ballots left to count! That includes about 9,000 ballots that were received in the mail on Election Day, 3,000 received in the mail today, 39,000 dropped off at polling places, 3,000 votes cast at City Hall on Election Day, and 14,000 provisional ballots.
What to expect next: In recent elections, the ballots that are mailed in tend to be more conservative, and the ballots dropped off at polling places tend to be more progressive. The provisional ballots are even more progressive. Probably something like 50-80% of those will end up counting. If the historical trend continues, we'd expect things to swing back towards Leno as they count the dropped-off ballots and provisional ballots.
Also, Jim Stearns, one of Leno's consultants, crunched the numbers and says most of today's batch came from Breed-friendly precincts. He also says the remaining ballots skew much younger in age (55% under the age of 50, vs 34% under age 50 for ballots already counted).
Keep the faith, Pissed Off Voters, keep the faith!
Update 6/6: The Department of Elections counted 4,300 votes and Leno's lead dipped down to 1,121 votes. There are about 87,000 ballots left to count: 16,000 that were received in the mail on Election Day, 47,000 dropped off at polling places, 3,000 votes cast at City Hall on Election Day, and 14,000 provisional ballots. The 4,300 ballots counted today were mailed in and received on Election Day. They will also still receive some more in the mail, and if they are postmarked by Election Day, they will count.
Update 6/5: On the final count of the night, Mark Leno inched ahead of London Breed by 1,146 votes. Wow! The #2 votes of Jane Kim's voters broke overwhelming to Leno, so if these results hold, and you voted the League slate, you helped make Leno Mayor!
The rest of the election results are overwhelmingly awesome! Rafael Mandelman won decisively, Prop F (lawyers for tenants facing evictions) and Prop G (parcel tax for teachers' pay) passed, and Prop H (dangerous police taser policy) lost! Prop C to fund childcare and early eduction is clinging to victory. Stay tuned!
Links for election results:
Timing of results:
- Tuesday at 8:45pm: The Department of Elections will release the first batch of results. These will be only vote-by-mail ballots received before Tuesday. Typically, these are the most conservative votes. Don’t freak out if the results look bad! Have another drink and wait for….
- Tuesday at 9:45, 10:45, and 11:30pm: Elections will release the totals from ballots cast at polling places.
- Wednesday at 4pm: Elections will release an updated count and tell us how many ballots they still have to count.
- Every day after that at 4pm: They'll keep release results until they're all counted.
What to expect?
None of the absentee ballots dropped off at polling places will be counted on Election Night! It might take two weeks for them all to be counted! Also, nobody who registered on Election Day at City Hall will have their ballot counted tonight. Also, none of the provisional ballots will be counted tonight! The drama will play out every day at 4pm in the basement of City Hall when the Department of Elections will release new results.
We’ve been watching this process for years, and almost always, the late results swing the results a few percentage points towards progressive causes. You can see that in the graphs below that we made from the November 2016 results for the District 1 and District 11 Board of Supervisors races.
Over on Mission Local, Joe Eskenazi offers his prognostications based on talking to a bunch of unnamed smart people. They seem to think London Breed will win if Jane Kim and Mark Leno are behind by more than 10% on the initial absentee ballots.
We think that might be overly conservative. If London is only up by 10% on the initial results, that lead could easily shrink to 5 or 6% by the end of the night. Then it will all depend on the late absentee ballots and of course, on how people use their #2 and #3 votes.
There's only been one other example of two major candidates using an RCV strategy like Jane Kim and Mark Leno are doing. In Oakland in 2010, Jean Quan was down by 9.26% and Rebecca Kaplan was behind by 12.15% on first place votes. That was on the final vote count--not the early, conservative vote-by-mail ballots. But when Kaplan's #2 votes overwhelmingly went to Jean Quan, she beat Don Perata 51% to 49%.
Keep the faith, Pissed Off Voters, keep the faith!
November 2016, Board of Supervisors District 11: Ahsha Safai's lead shrunk from 1,418 votes to 412 votes over the course of the vote count!
November 2016, Board of Supervisors District 1: Sandy Fewer's lead grew from -96 votes to 1365 votes over the course of the vote count!
Ready for something positive and inclusive and aspirational about the SF Mayor's race? Check out this piece by Rebecca Solnit.
I want a feminist mayor.
I want a mayor who is a champion of human rights.
I want a mayor who knows what it’s like to be a woman, an immigrant, a person of color, an outsider, a newcomer, a beginner, who stands with the dreamers and the old-timers, with the vulnerable and not just the powerful.
I want a mayor who’s passionately committed to keeping this place a sanctuary city.
I want a mayor who will be everyone’s mayor. A mayor who believes that San Francisco is for all of us, poor as well as rich, the baby born last week and the person who’s lived here nine decades, not just those of us in our prime working years. I want a mayor who knows that we need dishwashers and bus drivers and schoolteachers living here. I want the mayor with plans about how to close the widening gulf between rich and poor in in this town (and Jane Kim has them).Read more
There's no debate that Mark Leno was the most progressive member of the state Senate. Whether it was tenant protections, police reform, health care, LGBTQ rights, clean energy . . . you name it, Leno was on the right side. But Leno's super power is his ability to push the envelope on progressive policies while also earning the respect of everyone in the room and charming the pants off his fellow Senators! Check out this video of a bunch of stuffy state Senators gushing about how great Mark is! Drinking game: drink every time they talk about Mark's "grace!" Share this with your more moderate/less firey friends to show them they can feel safe voting for Leno. ;) Wouldn't it be great to have a Mayor who shares our values AND builds political bridges? That's why we're excited to vote for both Jane Kim and Mark Leno. See our voter guide for our full take.
P.S. Did you notice what a sausage fest this video is? Fun fact: there are currently only nine women in California's 40-member state Senate! :/
KALW asked London Breed about the San Francisco Tenants Union's criticism of her record, and it didn't go well. Breed said the SFTU lied when they said she did not support 2014's Prop G, the anti-speculation tax. But then she says she did not take a position. Isn't "not supporting" the same thing as "not taking a position?" That's not a lie. The Tenants Union asked Breed to support Prop G, but she refused to. We were super excited about Prop G to discourage speculators from buying up apartment buildings to evict the tenants and flip the property for a big profit. Unfortunately it lost 46% to 54% after the National Realtors Association parachuted with $2 million against it. Breed could've made a difference on it.
Then Breed said she voted for the ordinance regulating tenant buyouts. But the Board of Supervisors website (page 15) and press reports clearly show she voted against it! We join with the Tenants Union in supporting Jane Kim and Mark Leno as the best choices to protect tenants as our next Mayor.
London Breed with George and Charlotte Shultz, January 11, 2018. Photo by Drew Altizer.
(UPDATED 5/17/18 with confirmation from Richie Greenberg.)
In case you hadn’t noticed, things are getting weird in the Mayor’s race! Our friends at the Berniecrats posted this shocking video yesterday of a KTVU report that London Breed’s campaign approached the Republican Central Committee asking them to endorse her as their second choice, but they declined.
Breed rightfully joined the other major candidates in denouncing Angela Alioto’s proposal to weaken San Francisco’s Sanctuary City ordinance, but she’s going to ask for support from our local Republican party who opposes ALL Sanctuary City policy—in addition to all of their other awful policy positions?
This is extra troubling considering Breed’s campaign just paid $9,000 to send out a fundraising letter from George Shultz, a local Republican who was Ronald Reagan’s Secretary of State and Richard Nixon’s Secretary of the Treasurer! We would love to see the distribution list of who they mailed those letters to. We bet they went to a lot of San Francisco’s 35,000 Republicans.
It’s also weird that Breed would want the Republican’s #2 endorsement after she refused the local Democratic Party’s #3 endorsement! What’s going on here?Read more
One of the big topics in the Mayor’s race is the Housing Crisis. (Another is homelessness, which is totes connected.) We’ve been calling for reforming Prop 13 since we were founded and for building 100,000 new units of housing since 2014. We’re all about building more housing as long as we prioritize protecting vulnerable tenants and building as much affordable housing as is feasible, along with the vital infrastructure to serve all those new bodies.
We’re pissed off at those Forest Hill NIMBYs who blocked affordable housing for seniors, and pissed that the Mayor’s Office of Housing didn’t fight for the project. We’re also pissed off at the developers who are trying to use state law to build less affordable housing than our local laws require—and the state legislators that are enabling them.
You want to upzone the suburbs? So do we! But, we’re skeptical of this idea that, “if the government would just get out of the way and let developers build as much market-rate housing everywhere, everything will be better.” When in the history of capitalism has it worked out to fully deregulate an industry and “let the market decide??”Read more
See links to the candidates full responses below. Be sure to check out what they say about their self-care strategy for the election (here's a twitter thread summary)! And scroll down for a table of the Mayoral candidates responses to our yes/no and short answer questions.
San Francisco Mayor Candidate
San Francisco District 8
US Congress, District 12
California Board of Equalization
Mayor Candidate Comparison
|London Breed||Jane Kim||Mark Leno||Amy Farah Weiss||Angela Alioto||Michelle Bravo|
|Have you signed up for CleanPowerSF?||Green||Green||Super||Green||Green||Super|
|Support SFERS Divest from Fossil Fuels?||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes|
|Support expansion of Charter SChools?||No||No||Yes||No||No|
|Do you support the parcel tax for SFUSD?||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||No|
|Implement vacancy controls in SF?||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes|
|Fund representation for all immigration deportation cases?||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes|
|Allow new Mayor to negotiate MOU with Police Officers Assoc?||Yes||Yes||No||Yes||Yes||Yes|
|Consider 5+ year old reprimands of police officers for promotions?||No||Yes||Yes||No||No|
|Renew SFPD's involvement with FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force?||Yes||No||No||Yes||Yes||No|
|Support congestion pricing for the downtown core?||Yes||Yes||Yes||No|
|Support increasing the TSF by $5/square foot on commercial property?||No||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||No|
|Support a tax on transportation network companies (TNCs) and other "gig economy" operators?||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes|
|Which gross receipts measure supported for June 2018?||Homelessness||Childcare||Childcare||Childcare||Homelessness|
|Support the SF tenant right to counsel measure on the June 2018 ballot?||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||No|
|Do you support the June 2018 ballot measure to provide SF police with tasers?||Yes||No||No||No||Yes||No|
|RCV for Mayor?||2nd Leno||2nd Kim 3rd Leno||2nd Leno|
|Board of Supervisors D2?||Stefani, Anderson||Anderson||Anderson|
|Board of Supervisors D4?||Tang||Tang||Kim|
|Board of Supervisors D6?||Haney||Haney||Haney, Johnson||Trauss, Johnson||Haney|
|Board of Supervisors D8?||Mandelman||Mandelman||Mandelman||Sheehy||Mandelman|
|Board of Supervisors D10?||Walton, Ellington||Kelly||Kelly, Walton||Walton||Kelly|
|Board of Education in 2018?||Parker, Zhou||Collins, Lope, Satya||None||Moliga, Chinchilla||Parker, Satya||Haney|
|Community College Board in 2018?||Selby||D'avila||D'avila, Selby, Rizzo||Oliveri, Rizzo||Temprano, Mandelman, Bacharach|
|Board of Supes D1 in 2016?||Philhour||Fewer||Fewer||Fewer, Lyens, Thornley||Fewer|
|Board of Supes D3 in 2016?||Peskin||Peskin||Peskin||Peskin||Peskin|
|Board of Supes D5 in 2016?||Breed||Breed||Preston||Breed||Preston|
|Board of Supes D7 in 2016?||Yee||Yee||Yee||Yee||Engardio, Yee|
|Board of Supes D9 in 2016?||Arce||Ronen||Ronen||Ronen, Espana||Arce, Ronen||Ronen|
|Board of Supes D11 in 2016?||Safai||Alvarenga, Safai||Safai||Alvarenga, Herrera, Hernandez||Safai||Herrera|
|Board of Education in 2016?||Cook, Haney, Norton, McNeil||Cook, Haney, Sanchez||Cook, Haney, Sanchez, Norton||Haney|
|Community College Board in 2016?||Temprano, Bacharach, Williams, Randolph||Mandelman, Temprano, Williams||Mandelman, Bacharach, Temprano, Randolph|
|2016's Prop D "Let's Elect Our Elected Officials"?||No||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||No|
|2014's Prop G, the anti-speculation tax?||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes|
San Francisco voters asked for a transparent process to select an interim mayor, and hopefully that will happen at the Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, January 23! But, wait, we’ve still gotta show up to make our voices heard. Here's all you need to know to flex your democracy muscle.
(Two weeks ago, we broke down the whole mayoral succession process and gave our take, if you need a refresher.)Read more
Here’s your secret decoder ring for mayoral succession. The League breaks down the City Charter, definitions, process, and political inside baseball.
It’s been 14 years since San Francisco had a mayoral election without an incumbent! We think it's time.
- The last time the Mayor’s office was vacant in 2011 was a clusterfuck. The Willie Brown-Gavin Newsom crew pulled power plays to give Ed Lee the power of incumbency, which led to a divisive election and a lot of bad blood.
- We don’t support power plays where political insiders decide who our mayor is -- even if the potential Mayor is someone we would support.
- The Board of Supervisors needs to go through a transparent process to select a caretaker Mayor (we’ve got some ideas - see below).
- San Francisco voters deserve the clean slate of a fair and rigorous debate about who should be our next Mayor without an incumbent running.
The President-Elect's proposed first hundred days' agenda is anathema to progressive beliefs, and could undo years' of work. While the League's primary work has been producing voter guides and increasing voter engagement, we are each part of many communities in San Francisco. Although there is no local election in 2017, there is much work to be done. We reached out to our allies and received suggestions on groups who need your support now.
We have always resisted. Resisted the lies of the two party electoral game. Resisted police beatings and murders. Resisted environmental degradation and the evils of corporate polluters. Resisted male violence and transphobia. Resisted the rich bosses and landlords who own the airwaves and politicians. Resistance is our legacy. Resistance is our duty. We have resisted a long time. We will continue to resist.
Have suggestions for this list? Email us @ email@example.com
Bay Resistance is a new coalition of many of the groups listed below who are working together to resist the Trump administration. They will be sharing rapid response alerts to mobilize against threats to our communities such as immigration raids, healthcare cuts or Muslim surveillance. Sign up on their website and text RESIST to 41411 for action alerts. WHEN THEY COME FOR ANY OF US, THEY TAKE ON ALL OF US!
African Advocacy Network provides legal and social services to African and Afro-Caribbean immigrants and refugees. Contact them for current volunteer opportunities, especially for people who can provide language support. 938 Valencia St., SF, CA 94110
API Legal Outreach fights for justice in the Asian and Pacific Islander communities in SF and Oakland, focusing on issues such as human trafficking, elder abuse, domestic violence, and immigration. Contact them about volunteering (especially pro bono law services) and donating. 1121 Mission St. SF, CA 94103
CARECEN (Central American Resource Center) provides direct services, community development, and advocacy to the Bay Area Latino immigrant community. Contact them to get involved or donate. 3101 Mission St. SF, CA 94110
Dolores Street Community Services- Deportation Defense Program provides pro bono legal defense for individuals facing deportation from the US. You can get involved with this or DSCS's many other programs. 938 Valencia St. SF, CA 94110
La Raza Centro Legal provides legal services for immigration, workers' rights, housing, and civil rights for Latino and low-income communities. Volunteers, especially bilingual Spanish speakers, welcome. Donate here. 474 Valencia St., #295 SF, CA 94103
La Raza Community Resource Center is a bilingual, multi-service organization whose primary focus is to address the unmet needs of Latino immigrants. Contact them about current volunteer opportunities or donate. 474 Valencia St., #100 SF, CA 94103
Chinese for Affirmative Action works on community building, issue advocacy, and social change in the Asian and Pacific American community. They offer many ways to get involved and support their work. 17 Walter U Lum Place, SF 94108
Mujeres Unidas y Activas works to dismantle barriers for Latina immigrants through support groups, leadership training, and political engagement. Support them by volunteering, donating, hiring workers, and more. 543 18th Street, #23San Francisco, CA 94110
PODER works to create people-powered solutions to the profound environmental and economic inequities facing low-income Latino immigrants and other communities of color in San Francisco. Contact them to volunteer, or donate. 74 Valencia Street, #125San Francisco, CA 94103
Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights provides pro bono legal services for in many areas, including immigration, criminal justice, reentry, asylum seeking, and equal employment. They rely on volunteer attorneys, interpreters, and many others, as well as donations. 131 Steuart St #400, San Francisco, CA 94105
Pangea Legal Services provides deportation defense, community empowerment, and policy advocacy for immigrants. Support their work by volunteering, pro bono legal service, or donating. 350 Sansome St #650, San Francisco, CA 94104
Immigrant Center for Women and Children provides affordable immigration services to underrepresented immigrants in California. Lawyers and law students interested in volunteering are encouraged to contact them. 3543 18th St, San Francisco, CA 94110
International Institute of the Bay Area provides high-quality low-cost legal immigration services to community members who need them most. They have a number of volunteer opportunities and welcome donations as well. 657 Mission Street Suite 301 San Francisco, CA 94105
Racial & LGBTQ Justice
San Francisco Rising is an electoral alliance working to build political power of SF's working class communities of color. While much of their volunteer work comes during campaign season, they also need people to help with policy, fundraising, outreach, and more.
Causa Justa:: Just Cause is a multi-racial community-building organization working to achieve justice for low-income residents of SF and Oakland. They have many ways to get involved, especially for bilingual Spanish speakers. You can donate money or items from their wish list.
Arab Resource and Organizing Center works to empower and organize the Bay Area Arab community toward justice and self-determination. Contact them about volunteer/internship opportunities, or donate here. 522 Valencia St, San Francisco, CA 94110
National Lawyers Guild Bay Area is an association of lawyers, legal workers, and law students dedicated to protecting civil liberties and human rights. Volunteers can become legal observers for protests.
Bay Area Legal Aid provides low-income clients with free civil legal assistance, including legal advice and counsel, effective referrals, and legal representation. They have a range of volunteer opportunities for legal professionals and community members. 1035 Market St, San Francisco, CA 94103
Legal Services for Children provides free legal representation to children and youth. Legal professionals can join their pro bono panel, and others can donate here 1254 Market St, Third Floor San Francisco, CA 94102
Criminal Justice Reform
Officers for Justice works for equal opportunities for POC, women, and LGBT officers in SFPD, and reforming SFPD policy. They invite the public to attend weekly Police Commission hearings, or help out in their office.
St. Anthony's Medical Clinic provides primary and specialty care to families in the Tenderloin, 80% of whom live beneath the federal poverty level. Volunteer with their clinic, dining room, or many other programs, or donate.
Housing & Homelessness
San Francisco Tenants Union advocates for tenants rights and affordable housing, SFTU provides counseling and publishes the Tenants Rights Handbook. SFTU operates almost entirely through volunteers and donations.
Coalition on Homelessness works with homeless persons, services providers, and allies to expand housing and protect the rights of homeless people. Volunteers can join their policy workgroups or help produce the Street Sheet newspaper. Donate here.
350 Bay Area is a grassroots climate movement, working for divestment, renewable energy, and pollution reduction. With multiple active campaigns, they offer several volunteer opportunities. Donate here.
Parents for Public Schools - San Francisco promotes the value of public school education and equitable schools. They work with newcomer families to navigate schools. Parents can volunteer as school ambassadors, and donations are welcome.